THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT: IS THE IRAN–U.S. RIVALRY PUSHING THE WORLD TOWARD ANOTHER GLOBAL CRISIS?

THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT: IS THE IRAN–U.S. RIVALRY PUSHING THE WORLD TOWARD ANOTHER GLOBAL CRISIS?

For decades, the Middle East has been one of the most politically sensitive regions in the world. Any military standoff between Iran and the US does not only affect these countries but also causes economic disruptions, trade deficits, and social unrest. The global village is too integrated for any regional conflict to remain regional for too long.

The most pressing question, in my opinion, is not who is right and who is wrong but whether we can live with the consequences of perpetual military confrontations. Every new missile or economic sanction creates uncertainty, not only for the countries directly involved but for millions of ordinary people.

The economic burden of war

While the US administration insists that its military actions and strategic interventions are dictated by the need to ensure national security, protect allies, prevent nuclear proliferation, and combat terrorist groups, there are many who are not so sure about the benefits of perpetual military engagement.

Skeptics at home and abroad wonder if all these interventions, confrontations, and interventions are not counterproductive and if the price for them will not be very high. At the local level, instability, social unrest, disruption of trade and transport, and a wave of refugees are just some of the consequences that ordinary people have to bear. At the global level, economic consequences can be severe.

The Middle East region has always been strategically located as a hub for the distribution of oil and gas. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to energy prices’ increase, affecting every economy that relies on fossil fuels. This surge in prices affects everything from transportation to manufacturing and retail prices. With the growing costs of goods and services, inflation rates in many advanced economies are beginning to spiral out of control.

Europe, which is simultaneously highly dependent on hydrocarbons and extremely vulnerable to inflation and recession, bears the brunt of such geopolitical tensions. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many European countries find themselves in dire straits, having to withstand soaring prices, weaken their economies, and redirect resources to defense spending. A similar situation may well develop as a result of hostilities in the Middle East.

Many developing countries suffer even more as a result of surging energy prices and the resulting inflation. Many countries in Asia, Africa, and South America that have significant import dependence and precarious financial situations now face new challenges that will significantly affect not only the economies of these countries but also their societies. Many of these countries’ populations are in a vulnerable position as they are energy-dependent, food-dependent, and increasingly vulnerable to financial instability. Such a situation with skyrocketing prices and the resulting inflation can have severe consequences for the economies, social security, and even political stability of many developing countries.

Another negative consequence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will be a sluggish world economy. The current situation in the world economy is such that any geopolitical turmoil will lead to market fluctuations, which will have a negative impact on the resource-intensive world economy. Businesspeople, entrepreneurs, and stock exchange speculators will be hesitant to make any major deals and investments while international waterways and strategic passages are blocked.

A military conflict: should it be stopped?

War, as a rule, is extremely expensive and destructive, and if there is an opportunity to stop it, then it should be stopped. Political and military standoff is usually not only a draw but also more expensive than actual military action. In addition, as practice shows, peace will most often be achieved not through military aid but through international diplomacy and multilateral negotiations. Experience shows that political and economic stability is more enduring and sustainable than military alliances and treaties.

At the same time, international diplomacy requires time and patience since only through continuous dialogue can countries agree on concessions. There is little point in trying to negotiate while each side is determined to win at all costs. It is a known fact that trust is difficult to build but is destroyed in a few seconds.

What can the international community do to stop the military confrontation?

The UN and other international organizations should do their part to encourage political negotiations between countries while major powers try not to inflame regional tensions. Perhaps the role of third parties, whose status ensures objectivity, is necessary to help de-escalate the situation.

It is vital to promote economic cooperation and international trade rather than imposing economic sanctions, which often hurt the populations of the countries involved. Naturally, if countries’ diplomatic relations are severed, mutual visits by officials, scientists, and other representatives cannot be established. However, sanctions may be an example of politicization of the economy, causing unnecessary discomfort to the populations of third countries that are economically dependent on one of the warring countries.

It will also be vital to support and develop diplomatic methods to ensure regional security and stability. A long-term vision will have to be formed regarding international security, energy policy, and combating terrorism and other challenges that require a coordinated response.

What is India’s position?

India has had a policy of non-alignment for most of its history, which allowed it to develop relations with both the US and Iran, as well as many other countries of the Middle East. India has a number of priorities in this geopolitical drama, including energy security, the safety of Indian citizens in the Middle East, economic well-being, and national security. At the moment, India finds itself in a relatively good position to navigate the current military standoff between major powers. However, it does not have a military option in this situation.

India’s main goal is to ensure normal functioning of the national economy while maintaining international partnerships and alliances. India’s position is also based on minimizing risks in the nuclear field, ensuring the security of its national interests, and maintaining stability in the region.

India has already demonstrated its humanitarian potential in crises of this kind, being able to provide assistance to many of its citizens in difficult circumstances. In addition, India has the resources to repatriate Indians from war zones in times of acute need. At the moment, India can and must protect its citizens, which will ensure its national security.

India can serve as an honest broker in global diplomacy. It has the potential to help facilitate international negotiations and mediate dialogue between conflicting parties. In addition, India can provide humanitarian aid to people in war and economic crisis. India has previously demonstrated its ability to repatriate thousands of its citizens in similar situations. This kind of international assistance will help not only to save human lives but also to consolidate India’s status as a responsible state.

A new approach to global security

In the long run, the world needs to shift towards new technologies, policies, and strategies that reduce the likelihood of international conflicts. Countries need to focus more on preventing wars than preparing for them. The international community needs to work together to secure the energy supply, protect digital infrastructures, strengthen economic ties, and promote financial and trade stability. Cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and environmental protection are also increasingly important areas that require the joint efforts of the international community.

It is also necessary to ensure the functioning of mechanisms for preventing and resolving regional and international crises. The entire international community needs to pay more attention to diplomacy, intelligence, and international law than to military technology, weapons, and regional military alliances. It is vital to build strong and stable international ties that will ensure peace and stability instead of the current situation of constant international crises.

It must be recognized that the ultimate goal of the world’s foreign policy is not to win wars but to prevent them.

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Aashutosh Tripathi (Aakesh Aainan)

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